The 2026 Fall Real Estate Market: What Buyers and Sellers Should Know

If there’s one thing I would tell anyone considering a real estate move this fall, it’s this: don’t make a decision based solely on the headlines. The Scottsdale and Phoenix markets have shifted, but that doesn’t mean homes aren’t selling or that buyers should automatically sit on the sidelines. It means strategy matters more than it has in a long time. As we head into fall, buyers have more choices, sellers are facing more competition and higher mortgage rates continue to influence affordability and purchasing decisions.

Buyers Have More Leverage

For buyers, one of the biggest changes is simply having more room to negotiate.

In Phoenix, active inventory in September was up 7.5% compared with a year earlier, while nearly 29% of listings had experienced a price reduction. The median listing price was $475,000, down 4.8% year over year.

That doesn’t mean every seller is willing to make a deal, but buyers are generally in a much better position to negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs or other concessions than they were during the highly competitive market of a few years ago.

The key is identifying where the opportunity actually exists. A well-priced home in a desirable neighborhood may still receive strong interest, while a property that has been sitting for 60, 90 or even 100+ days can present a very different negotiation.

Mortgage Rates Are Still a Major Factor

Mortgage rates have moved higher again heading into October. As of October 6, the average 30-year fixed rate is hovering in the low-to-mid 7% range, depending on the source, loan profile and lender. Mortgage News Daily is currently tracking the average around 7.56%, while Freddie Mac’s latest weekly average is 7.28%.

There’s no question that rates affect purchasing power, and today’s rates are causing some buyers to be more selective about both price and monthly payment. But I also caution buyers against making an entire real estate decision based on trying to predict where rates will be six months from now. A better question is: Does the purchase make sense for you at today’s numbers?

One advantage buyers have right now is that higher rates have also reduced some of the competition we saw in previous years. That can create opportunities to negotiate purchase price, seller-paid closing costs or even a temporary or permanent interest-rate buydown. And if rates eventually come down, refinancing may become an option. What you generally can’t change later is the price you paid for the home.

Rather than waiting for the “perfect” rate, I think buyers should look at the entire equation: the property, purchase price, monthly payment, negotiating opportunity and how long they plan to own the home.

Sellers Need to Pay Attention to Pricing

For sellers, this is not a market where I recommend “testing” an aggressive price just to see what happens. Buyers have too much information and too many alternatives.

In Scottsdale, the median listing price in September was approximately $899,000, and homes were spending a median of 78 days on the market. Properties sold for an average of about 3% below asking price, with Realtor.com characterizing the overall Scottsdale market as balanced.

Those averages also hide significant differences from one neighborhood and property type to another. Old Town Scottsdale, for example, was averaging around 80 days on market in September, while Downtown Scottsdale was closer to 86 days. That’s why looking only at a Scottsdale-wide number rarely tells the full story.

Pricing needs to take into account your specific neighborhood, property type, condition, competing inventory and recent sales—not simply what the home down the street was listed for.

The Best Homes Are Still Selling

One of the most important distinctions in today's market is between homes that are listed and homes that buyers actually want to buy.

Properties that are well-maintained, appropriately updated, priced correctly and located in desirable areas continue to attract buyers. Homes that need work, have an awkward floor plan, are competing against newer inventory or simply entered the market too high may sit significantly longer. For sellers, preparation and positioning matter.

For buyers, that creates opportunity.

Real Estate Is Becoming Much More Local

You’ll hear people say things like “Phoenix is a buyer's market” or “Scottsdale is slowing down,” but broad statements like those can be misleading.

A condo in Old Town can behave very differently from a single-family home in McCormick Ranch. North Scottsdale can look completely different from South Scottsdale. Even two homes within the same ZIP code may have very different levels of buyer demand.

That’s why I believe the question is no longer simply: “How is the market?” The better question is: “How is the market for this particular property?” And that answer can change dramatically based on location, price point and property type.

What I’m Telling My Clients This Fall

For buyers, there are opportunities right now. You have more inventory to choose from, more time to evaluate properties and, in many situations, considerably more negotiating power.

For sellers, homes are still selling, but pricing correctly from the beginning is becoming increasingly important. Overpricing and planning to “reduce later” can ultimately cost both time and negotiating leverage.

And for homeowners who aren’t sure whether they should sell, rent, remodel or simply stay put, this is a good market to run the numbers before making a decision.

Real estate decisions should rarely be based on one statistic, one interest-rate headline or one prediction about what happens next. They should be based on your property, your financial position and what you’re trying to accomplish.

If you're considering a move in Scottsdale, Phoenix or the surrounding areas, I'm always happy to look at the numbers with you and talk through your options, whether you're planning something now or simply trying to understand what your next move could look like.