Should I Buy Now or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates?
It’s an understandable question. A lower mortgage rate can reduce your monthly payment and make a home purchase feel more comfortable. But waiting for rates to fall comes with its own uncertainty: What will home prices look like? How many other buyers will be shopping? And will the home you want still fit your budget?
For buyers considering a move in Scottsdale or Phoenix, the decision starts with what you can comfortably afford today.
Start with the payment, not the prediction
Rather than trying to predict the next rate change, start with a clear picture of your monthly costs. That includes principal and interest, property taxes, homeowners insurance, any HOA fees and mortgage insurance, plus room for maintenance.
A lender’s approval amount is a starting point. Your personal comfort level matters just as much. A payment should leave room for savings, everyday expenses and the things you enjoy.
If buying today would stretch your budget too far, waiting may be the right decision. A purchase should work with your current finances without depending on a future refinance.
What would a lower rate actually save?
For illustration, on a $600,000 mortgage with a 30-year fixed term, monthly principal and interest would be approximately:
| Illustrative interest rate | Monthly principal and interest |
|---|---|
| 7.0% | $3,992 |
| 6.5% | $3,792 |
| 6.0% | $3,597 |
A drop from 7% to 6% would save roughly $395 per month on the same loan amount. That is meaningful—but it assumes the purchase price and down payment stay the same.
These are hypothetical examples, not current rate quotes. Payments exclude taxes, insurance, HOA fees and mortgage insurance. Actual loan pricing and costs vary.
Waiting can change more than your rate
If rates decline, some buyers who have paused their searches may return. That could increase competition and give sellers less reason to negotiate. Depending on the property and neighborhood, a lower rate could come alongside a higher purchase price or fewer seller concessions.
That outcome is not guaranteed. Rates could remain elevated, inventory could grow, or prices could soften in your target area. There is no reliable way to know exactly how those factors will line up.
The useful comparison is your total cost under several scenarios—not the interest rate alone.
Negotiating room has value, too
When evaluating a home, I look beyond the asking price. Recent comparable sales, competing listings, condition and time on market help determine where there may be room to negotiate.
Depending on the transaction and financing, an offer might include a price adjustment or a request for seller contributions toward allowable closing costs or a rate buydown. Your lender can help compare those options so you understand the upfront savings and longer-term costs.
A lower purchase price and a lower mortgage rate affect your finances differently. It helps to put actual numbers beside each option.
What about buying now and refinancing later?
Refinancing may become an option, but it should be treated as a possibility. Future rates, your income and credit, the home’s value and refinancing costs will all affect whether it makes sense.
My advice is to choose a home and payment you can comfortably carry under the original loan terms. If a worthwhile refinancing opportunity comes later, you can evaluate it then.
So, should you buy or wait?
Buying now may make sense if the payment fits comfortably, you have reserves after closing, and the home meets your needs for the years ahead. Waiting may make sense if you need to build savings, reduce debt or gain clarity about your plans.
You don’t have to predict the market perfectly to make a thoughtful decision. You do need a realistic budget and a clear understanding of your options.
If you’re considering a purchase in Scottsdale, Phoenix or the surrounding areas, I’d be happy to help you compare homes, review local pricing and coordinate with your lender to see what buying today could look like for you.
